Signals › Housing & Construction
The Leamer variable. Led eight of the last eleven recessions.
Percent · observation 2026-04-01, published 2026-07-30
Last 24 observations.
Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.
Housing & Construction: Track the sector that leads the cycle more reliably than any other. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.