CycleWatch

Signals › Housing & Construction

MORTGAGE30US · FRED

30-year fixed mortgage rate

The binding affordability variable.

Latest reading

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Signal

−1.83

Recession-like. A weaker block can only raise the probability.

Use
In model: block 9 score
Model input
change from the previous period
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Housing & Construction: Track the sector that leads the cycle more reliably than any other. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block