CycleWatch

Signals › Housing & Construction

RRVRUSQ156N · FRED

Rental vacancy rate

Supply wave timing in the largest CRE category.

Latest reading

7.30

Percent · observation 2026-04-01, published 2026-07-28

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.00

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 9 score
Model input
change from the previous period
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Housing & Construction: Track the sector that leads the cycle more reliably than any other. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block