Housing starts

Follows permits by 1-2 months; noisier.

Latest reading

1,275

Thousands of Units · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-17

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.71

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use: In model: block 9 score
Model input: 100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction: A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Housing & Construction: Track the sector that leads the cycle more reliably than any other. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

Building permits
New home sales
Existing home sales
Months' supply of new homes
Case-Shiller national HPI
FHFA house price index
30-year fixed mortgage rate
Residential fixed investment share of GDP
Total construction spending
Private nonresidential construction
Rental vacancy rate