CycleWatch

Signals › Housing & Construction

MSACSR · FRED

Months' supply of new homes

Inventory overhang forces price and construction cuts.

Latest reading

8.50

Months' Supply · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-24

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+1.05

Reassuring. It holds the probability down.

Use
In model: block 9 score
Model input
change from the previous period
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Housing & Construction: Track the sector that leads the cycle more reliably than any other. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block