Signals › Credit & Financial Conditions
Contraction here defines credit-driven recessions. BUSLOANS is the monthly series (was declared weekly; weekly is TOTCI). LAGGING: a component of the Conference Board Lagging Index; credit lines are drawn INTO recessions (audit M-08).
Billions of U.S. Dollars · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-11
Last 24 observations.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Credit & Financial Conditions: Measure the price and availability of credit — the best-performing partner to the term spread in published out-of-sample work. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.