Signals › Inflation & Prices
Increase above the prior 3-year maximum. The canonical oil-shock transform — the level is not the signal.
model input (derived) · observation 2026-10-02, published —
Last 24 observations.
Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.
Inflation & Prices: Capture the shock channel, not the level. Inflation rarely causes recessions; oil shocks and the policy response to inflation do. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.