CycleWatch

Signals › Credit & Financial Conditions

SUBLPDRCSN · FRED

SLOOS: CRE standards

The office repricing channel into regional bank capital. Nonfarm nonresidential CRE, 2013+ only (the discontinued DRTSCREL 1990-2013 is not spliced).

Latest reading

-11.30

Percent · observation 2026-07-01, published 2026-08-03

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+1.05

Reassuring. It holds the probability down.

Use
In model: block 5 score
Model input
the level as published
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Credit & Financial Conditions: Measure the price and availability of credit — the best-performing partner to the term spread in published out-of-sample work. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block