CycleWatch

Signals › Equity, Volatility & Cross-Asset

VIXCLS · FRED

CBOE volatility index

Level alone is nearly useless; the term structure is the signal.

Latest reading

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licensed: not shown on the public site.

Signal

+0.19

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 10 score
Model input
the level as published
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Equity, Volatility & Cross-Asset: Extract cycle information from market internals rather than index level. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block