Signals › Labor Market
Composition-biased. Decelerates into downturns, with a lag.
Dollars per Hour · observation 2026-09-01, published 2026-10-02
Last 24 observations.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Labor Market: Detect the income-to-consumption feedback loop that turns a slowdown into a recession. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.