CycleWatch

Signals › Credit & Financial Conditions

KCFSI · FRED

Kansas City Fed financial stress index

Monthly alternative stress composite.

Latest reading

-0.946

Index · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-05

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.87

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 5 score
Model input
the level as published
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Credit & Financial Conditions: Measure the price and availability of credit — the best-performing partner to the term spread in published out-of-sample work. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block