CycleWatch

Signals › Credit & Financial Conditions

TOTBKCR · FRED

Total bank credit

Aggregate bank balance sheet growth, weekly.

Latest reading

19,863

Billions of U.S. Dollars · observation 2026-09-23, published 2026-10-02

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.18

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 5 score
Model input
% change from a year earlier
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Credit & Financial Conditions: Measure the price and availability of credit — the best-performing partner to the term spread in published out-of-sample work. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block