CycleWatch

Signals › Real Activity & Output

IPG2211S · FRED

Electricity output

Now distorted upward by datacenter load — see Block 16. Electric power only (IPUTIL includes weather-driven gas utilities; audit L-02).

Latest reading

113.1

Index 2017=100 · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-18

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+1.45

Reassuring. It holds the probability down.

Use
In model: block 1 score
Model input
% change from a year earlier
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Real Activity & Output: Capture the definitional core of economic activity — the series the NBER committee itself weighs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block