CycleWatch

Signals › Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity

WTREGEN · FRED

Treasury General Account

Treasury cash swings drain and inject reserves mechanically.

Latest reading

948,674

Millions of U.S. Dollars · observation 2026-09-30, published 2026-10-01

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−4.00

Recession-like. A weaker block can only raise the probability.

Use
In model: block 6 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity: Model the policy reaction function explicitly rather than treating policy as an exogenous shock. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block