Signals › Uncertainty, Sentiment & Text
USEPUINDXD · FRED
Economic Policy Uncertainty index
Baker-Bloom-Davis. CC BY 4.0 — commercial use permitted. Unusually clean licensing for this registry.
Latest reading
160.6
Index · observation 2026-10-01, published 2026-10-02
Last 24 observations.
Signal
−1.34
Recession-like. A weaker block can only raise the probability.
- Use
- In model: block 14 score
- Model input
- the level as published
- Direction
- A rising value raises recession risk.
Where it fits
Uncertainty, Sentiment & Text: Quantify uncertainty shocks and narrative shifts. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.