US recession odds

Prices

CPI-U · U.S. city average · BLS item SA0LE

All items less energy

Prices for all items less energy rose 2.5% in the 12 months to August 2026, and rose 0.3% in the month.

12 months+2.5%to August 2026, unadjusted
1 month+0.3%seasonally adjusted
3 months, annualised+1.9%seasonally adjusted
Index338.91982–84 = 100

12-month change

% change from a year earlier

0%2%5%8%2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Price index

1982–84 = 100, not seasonally adjusted

2503002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Month by month

The last two years

MonthIndex1 month12 months
August 2026338.9+0.3%+2.5%
July 2026338.1+0.2%+2.6%
June 2026337.8+0.0%+2.7%
May 2026337.7+0.2%+2.9%
April 2026336.8+0.4%+2.8%
March 2026335.3+0.2%+2.6%
February 2026334.3+0.2%+2.5%
January 2026333.0+0.3%+2.6%
December 2025331.6+0.3%+2.7%
November 2025331.2—+2.6%
September 2025331.6+0.2%+3.0%
August 2025330.7+0.3%+3.1%
July 2025329.7+0.3%+3.0%
June 2025329.1+0.2%+2.9%
May 2025328.2+0.2%+2.8%
April 2025327.5+0.2%+2.8%
March 2025326.8+0.1%+2.8%
February 2025326.0+0.2%+3.0%
January 2025324.7+0.4%+3.1%
December 2024322.8+0.2%+3.1%
November 2024322.7+0.3%+3.2%
October 2024322.5+0.3%+3.2%
September 2024321.9+0.3%+3.2%
August 2024320.7+0.2%+3.0%
July 2024320.0+0.2%+3.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI for All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average (series CUUR0000SA0LE and CUSR0000SA0LE). BLS did not collect October 2025 prices, so changes spanning that month are blank. Shown for context: consumer prices do not feed CycleWatch's recession model.