About CycleWatch
An independent research project that estimates the chance a US recession begins within the next 12 months, and shows all of its working.
What it does
Every weekday it checks for newly published US economic data, re-runs its models when something new comes out, and logs each forecast in a hash-chained record that cannot be quietly edited. The headline follows rules written in advance about when to trust which model, and the site shows where those rules are weak.
How it is built
The data comes from public sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board, the Census Bureau and others, read as it was known at each date. Some licensed series feed the 12-block model but are not shown here. The method, with the code behind each step, is on the Method tab.
What it is not
It is not investment, financial or career advice, and it is not affiliated with the Federal Reserve, the NBER or any data provider.