Signals › The Yield Curve Complex
T10Y3M · FRED
10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread
NY Fed model input. Inverted Oct 2022-Dec 2024, trough ~-190bp, no recession followed.
Latest reading
1.09
Percent · observation 2026-10-02, published 2026-10-02
Last 24 observations.
Signal
−0.14
Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.
- Use
- In model: block 7 score
- Model input
- the level as published
- Direction
- A falling value raises recession risk.
Where it fits
The Yield Curve Complex: Isolate the single most-studied predictor and its variants, including the specification that dominates it. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.