{
 "as_of": "2026-10-02",
 "kind": "in-month",
 "headline_probability": 0.0436,
 "headline_series": "term spread + excess bond premium",
 "model_probability": 0.0157,
 "benchmark_probability": 0.0436,
 "alarm_threshold": 0.25,
 "kill_rules_in_force": [
  "K4"
 ],
 "entry_hash": "a430d5bc0dbac8dad33f7340a92654d7d28012785849b153cf1f423b88cf4ecf",
 "definition": "Probability that an NBER-dated US recession begins within the next 12 months."
}